DUBLIN (AP) 鈥� An exit poll in Ireland鈥檚 released late Friday suggests the three biggest parties have won roughly equal shares and the country is headed for another coalition government.
A poll released as voting ended at 10 p.m. (2200GMT) said center-right party Fine Gael was the first choice of 21% of voters, with its center-right coalition partner in the outgoing government, Fianna Fail at 19.5%. Left-of-center opposition Sinn Fein was at 21.1% in the poll.
Pollster Ipsos B&A asked 5,018 voters across the country how they had cast their ballots. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.
The figures only give an indication and don鈥檛 reveal which parties will form the next government. Counting of ballots starts Saturday morning and because Ireland uses a complex system of proportional representation known as the single transferrable vote, it can take between several hours and several days for full results to be known.
The result will show whether Ireland bucks the global trend of by disgruntled voters after years of pandemic, international instability and a cost-of-living pressures.
Sinn Fein, which had urged people to vote for change, hailed the result.
鈥淭here is every chance that Sinn Fein will emerge from these elections as the largest political party,鈥� Sinn Fein director of elections Matt Carthy told broadcaster RTE.
Though Sinn Fein, which aims to reunite Northern Ireland with the independent Republic of Ireland, could become the largest party in the 174-seat Dail, the lower house of parliament, it may struggle to get enough coalition partners to form a government. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have refused to form alliances with it.
Here鈥檚 a look at the parties, the issues and the likely outcome.
Who鈥檚 running?
The outgoing government was led by the two parties who have dominated Irish politics for the past century: Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. They have similar center-right policies but are longtime rivals with origins on opposing sides of Ireland鈥檚 1920s civil war.
After the 2020 election ended in a virtual dead heat they formed a coalition, agreeing to share Cabinet posts and take turns as taoiseach, or prime minister. served as premier for the first half of the term and was replaced by Fine Gael鈥檚 Leo Varadkar in December 2022. in March, passing the job to current
Opposition party Sinn Fein achieved in the 2020 election, topping the popular vote, but was shut out of government because Fianna Fail and Fine Gael refused to work with it, citing its leftist policies and historic ties with militant group the Irish Republican Army during three decades of violence in Northern Ireland.
Under Ireland鈥檚 system of proportional representation, each of the 43 constituencies elects multiple lawmakers, with voters ranking their preferences. That makes it relatively easy for smaller parties and independent candidates with a strong local following to gain seats.
This election includes a large crop of independent candidates, ranging from local campaigners to far-right activists and reputed crime boss Gerry 鈥渢he Monk鈥� Hutch.
What are the main issues?
As in many other countries, the cost of living 鈥� especially housing 鈥� has dominated . Ireland has an acute housing shortage, the legacy of failing to build enough new homes during the country鈥檚 鈥淐eltic Tiger鈥� boom years and the economic slump that followed the 2008 global financial crisis.
鈥淭here was not building during the crisis, and when the crisis receded, offices and hotels were built first,鈥� said John-Mark McCafferty, chief executive of housing and homelessness charity Threshold.
The result is soaring house prices, rising rents and growing homelessness.
After a decade of economic growth, McCafferty said 鈥淚reland has resources鈥� 鈥� not least 13 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in back taxes the European Union has ordered Apple to pay it 鈥� 鈥渂ut it is trying to address big historic infrastructural deficits.鈥�
Tangled up with the housing issue is immigration, a fairly recent challenge to a country long defined by emigration. Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians displaced by war and thousands of people fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa.
This country of 5.4 million has struggled to house all the asylum-seekers, leading to tent camps and makeshift accommodation centers that have attracted tension and protests. A stabbing attack on children outside a Dublin school a year ago, in which an Algerian man has been charged, Ireland had seen in decades.
Unlike many European countries, Ireland does not have a significant far-right party, but far-right voices on social media seek to drum up hostility to migrants, and anti-immigrant independent candidates are hoping for election in several districts. The issue appears to be hitting support for Sinn Fein, as working-class supporters bristled at its pro-immigration policies.
What鈥檚 the likely outcome?
The exit poll bears out earlier opinion poll findings that voters鈥� support is split widely among Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, several smaller parties and an assortment of independents.
Before polling day, analysts said the most likely outcome is another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition, possibly with a smaller party or a clutch of independents as kingmakers. That remains a likely option.
鈥淚t鈥檚 just a question of which minor group is going to be the group that supports the government this time,鈥� said Eoin O鈥橫alley, a political scientist at Dublin City University. 鈥淐oalition-forming is about putting a hue on what is essentially the same middle-of-the-road government every time.鈥�
___
Lawless reported from London.
Jill Lawless And Peter Morrison, The Associated Press
