Cold weather snaps, like the one we just experienced in the Lower Mainland and other parts of B.C., bring to mind the incredible importance of having robust energy systems.
As both an electricity and gas provider, FortisBC has a firsthand view of the challenges of keeping up with B.C.’s growing electricity needs, especially in periods of extreme weather. Understanding the scope of that challenge, we get very concerned when an electrification-only approach is put forward as the only way to meeting the province’s climate targets.
On the surface, using B.C.’s clean electricity system to electrify all aspects of our economy appears to be the simplest pathway. However, most buildings today are dual-fuel – we rely on both the gas and electric systems working together for the comfort and benefit of the people inside. A closer look reveals that attempting to electrify all building heating will place significant strain on the electric system and could foreclose other opportunities. This would be an unnecessary sacrifice as there are other effective ways to decarbonize buildings.
The problem with an electrification-focused strategy for buildings is two-fold. First, at its extreme, replacing all of the energy provided by the gas system on the coldest days would require a three-fold expansion of B.C.’s electric system capacity. For example, during December’s record-breaking cold snap, the FortisBC and BC Hydro electric systems delivered a new peak demand of approximately 11,700 megawatts. By comparison, the gas system moved close to double that on the same day – equivalent to more than 21,000 megawatts.
BC Hydro’s own planning demonstrates the scale of the challenge. Their accelerated electrification scenario is designed to meet the province’s greenhouse gas (GHG) targets with electrification. It states that peak load on the electric system would increase by at least 4,500 megawatts over their existing generation by 2040; that’s an increase in demand equivalent to four Site C dams.
Various academic studies over the last year have predicted similar or greater supply shortfalls. And the issue is coming at us quickly. The accelerated electrification scenario could see a system shortfall as soon as 2027.
Secondly, on top of new generation, the upgrades required to the overall electrical system to carry that much new electricity are staggering. FortisBC estimates that building the required lines and substations to fully electrify homes and businesses in the Kelowna area alone may cost up to $2 billion dollars. That’s many times our estimated cost of just addressing the anticipated population growth and electric vehicle adoption in the region. And given the exposure of the electric system to an increasing number of extreme weather events, an over-reliance on this single energy system for all essential services is a concern.
In our opinion, a better and more realistic alternative is to rely on a more diverse approach to lowering GHG in the province. Leveraging our existing gas system to meet high energy needs, like critical winter heating loads, allows a more measured expansion of the electric system. Achieving B.C.’s GHG reduction goals could then be met through both increasing electrification and delivering renewable and low-carbon gases. This will allow B.C. to meet its climate goals more affordably as well as take advantage of important opportunities like LNG.
FortisBC is taking concrete action by delivering growing quantities of renewable gas and low-carbon gases, including renewable natural gas (RNG), and we anticipate carrying zero-carbon hydrogen in the future. By 2050, our vision is to transition the vast majority of the energy we deliver across B.C. to be renewable and low carbon. We’re also making record investment in energy efficiency, helping to reduce emissions by simply using less energy.
By supporting customers in lowering their energy use and helping them meet their remaining energy needs through their choice of RNG or electricity, we can achieve B.C.’s climate action targets more practically, affordably and reliably than moving to a single, electric-only energy system.
Doug Slater is vice-president of external and Indigenous relations at FortisBC.
