For decades, Quebec and its governments have been petulant and demanding. The tendency has been there since at least the first avowedly separatist Parti Qu茅b茅cois government was elected in 1976. That habit continued regardless of the party in power, and of course, depending on the party, there was always the threat to separate.
The new Quebec premier, Philippe Couillard, has hinted that he has little interest in such political games.
His willingness to avoid constitutional wrangling is useful, especially given that Couillard would be better advised to stick to his election promise to restore Quebec to prosperity.
For one thing, the 鈥渞est of Canada鈥� is less likely than ever to cater to provincial politicians in Quebec. They no longer need to, in part because the balance of the population has been shifting to Ontario and to the West for decades.
In 1980, the year of Quebec鈥檚 first referendum on separation, Quebec accounted for 27 per cent of Canada鈥檚 population; that dropped to 25 per cent by 1995 (at the time of the second referendum) and 23 per cent by 2013.
By contrast, in 1980, B.C. and Alberta represented 20 per cent of the country鈥檚 population, but by 2013 accounted for almost one-quarter (24.5 per cent) of all 91原创s. Ontario鈥檚 share of the country鈥檚 population has also grown, from 36 per cent in 1980 to 39 per cent by 2013.
The ramifications of the population shift away from Quebec are potentially profound. Whereas Ontario and the four western provinces constituted 64 per cent of the country鈥檚 population in 1980, they now account for 70 per cent of Canada鈥檚 population.
That six per cent increase may not seem like much, but it matters to parties trying to gain a majority in the House of Commons, which is increasingly likely to reflect Ontario-Western Canada interests than the 20th-century Quebec-Ontario axis.
In 1980, Quebec鈥檚 75 seats meant it had almost 27 per cent of the seats in Parliament.
After additional seats are added for the 2015 election, Quebec鈥檚 new 78-seat share (out of 338) will represent just over 23 per cent. The West and Ontario (with 61 per cent of Parliament鈥檚 seat in 1980) will have 225 seats in 2015 鈥� or almost 67 per cent of the 338 seats in Parliament.
Critically, beyond the raw numbers, Ontario is in the odd position of being a have-not province receiving equalization payments, yet remains a net contributor to the federal balance sheet. So more Quebec demands 鈥� for money, power, and even soft recognition 鈥� might well hit a brick wall of opposition or indifference in Ontario as they have out West.
Which leads to this thought: Quebec鈥檚 relative decline vis-à-vis the West and Ontario was not inevitable. While separatist politics were not the only factor in Quebec鈥檚 decline, the rise of a political class that was both separatist and interventionist chased away investment. Consider corporate head-office counts between 1990 and 2011. In that time, Montreal slipped to third place behind Toronto (which also lost some) and Calgary, which almost doubled its head office count since 1990.
It was not always thus. In a 1940 Royal Commission report on federal-provincial relations, the authors noted how, before the Great Depression, Quebec鈥檚 financial position was 鈥渓ong considered to be the fiscal Gibraltar of 91原创 provinces.鈥� The Great Depression ended by the time that report was issued, and postwar Quebec and the rest of Canada blossomed again until about the 1970s. Then, the separatist and interventionist predilection had a predictable depressing effect upon Quebec鈥檚 fortunes.
Now, la belle province is more famous for high taxes, deep debt, corruption and a confused approach to entrepreneurship and investment that discourages energy and mining on the one hand, while massively subsidizing private and government-owned businesses on the other.
Premier-elect Couillard has pledged to 鈥減ut Quebec back on the path to prosperity.鈥� As well he should. Quebec was once an opportunity-based culture, prosperous and a net contributor to Confederation. Quebec鈥檚 future could once again resemble its laudable past.
Mark Milke is a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute.
