Oh, for a crystal ball. British Columbia's political scene is going to be fascinating in coming months, with more twists and turns than we've seen in years.
Blame -- or credit, depending on your point of view -- the harmonized sales tax.
The Liberals introduced the tax soon after being returned to office. The New Democrats howled. Voters howled. A former premier howled. And now we have so many possibilities it's hard to keep track of them all.
What's next for the Liberals?
Premier Gordon Campbell served notice this week that he will devote his summer to promoting the benefits of the new tax. That's a tough assignment, because consumers will see immediate costs, while the benefits are to come in the future.
If only Campbell had done this last year. If only friends in the business community had thought of telling consumers how the new tax would help the average taxpayer. If only.
The HST might be the best thing the government could do to help the province's economy. It might bring investment, jobs and lower prices.
But it also will be remembered as a broken promise that motivated half a million British Columbians to get off their couches and challenge the government.
And it should be remembered for decades as a textbook case of a failure to communicate. You can trace the government's woes back to its utter incompetence at getting a believable message to the voters.
In any event, the government has little choice but to press on. The successful initiative petition will go to a legislative committee run by the Liberals, the committee will draft a bill to present to the legislature and the legislature will reject it. Or it can go to a referendum, which, if successful, will result in a bill for the legislature to reject. Yawn.
But wait! Before any of that happens, the anti-HST forces could have transmogrified themselves into recall committees. Target some MLAs, get them bumped out of office and the NDP would control the legislature.
Or target just one MLA -- the premier -- and get him ousted. Watch party discipline collapse and the knives come out. Oh, what fun that would be. To watch. Ideally from another province.
Of course, if the recall-Campbell move fails, then further resistance would be futile. Voters would be angry but powerless.
What's next for the NDP?
The New Democrats have been riding high with the anti-HST forces. They saw the parade of public sentiment, saw former premier Bill Vander Zalm leading it and wisely decided that they should get to the front, too.
They have been hammering at the Liberals in the legislature and will keep it up until, mercifully, the session comes to a close.
The New Democrats keep demanding the Liberals cancel the HST, even though they know that won't happen. They ignore the hole their demand would blow in the provincial budget and don't say what should be done instead of the HST.
Why would they? There is no political benefit in suggesting workable alternatives. That would give the Liberals something to attack.
The New Democrats have the most to gain from the anti-HST drive. The tax could put the NDP back into power earlier than anyone would have guessed. All they have to do is demonstrate that they are looking out for the voters.
What's next for Vander Zalm?
He stands to gain the most from all of this, assuming the election of the NDP is his goal. He is still the kind of charismatic leader that many people would follow anywhere. A new centre-right party? That would certainly be possible if Vander Zalm doesn't like the way the Liberals respond to his petition.
The Zalmers would not need to win the election to make a difference. They would only have to pull enough centre-right votes from the Liberals to let the NDP win a majority.
And what would the NDP do about balancing the budget? Oh, sorry, we're not supposed to ask.
All in all, it's shaping up to be a fascinating summer. Like a game of chess, every move will create new scenarios and new opportunities.
One move will count more than all the rest. Campbell's reaction to the successful anti-HST petition, when it is formally presented to the government, could be enough to end the game -- one way or the other.
