John Horgan鈥檚 virtual acclamation as the new leader of B.C.鈥檚 New Democratic Party brings plenty of hope, but also concern. I worked with John in the late 1990s while Glen Clark was premier.
He is a genuinely nice guy with an instinct for politics and a wide streak of honesty. He鈥檚 also a fan of Scottish comedian Billy Connolly, which means his sense of humour is intact.
More important, he鈥檚 the MLA for a blue-collar riding 鈥� Malahat-Juan de Fuca. That gives him a head start in grappling with his party鈥檚 biggest impediment 鈥� its greenward lurch that has severed it from voters who rely on the resource sector for a living.
In short, he represents the best chance New Democrats have of re-establishing the party鈥檚 working class roots.
Here, though, is the concern. First off, he鈥檚 not from 91原创. Those of us on the Island would see that as a plus. But most of the party bigwigs are closeted in the Lower Mainland. That makes him an outsider from the get-go.
Second, it might not matter much what he thinks about policy. The party executive is calling the shots.
Look what happened to Carole James, another 91原创 Islander, who led the party from 2003 to 2010. She was forced out when the NDP was miles ahead in the polls.
It鈥檚 widely assumed she was axed because the 91原创 radicals, led in this instance by Jenny Kwan, feared she would lose.
Not so. James was dumped because people like Kwan feared she would win.
Like Horgan, James was a genuine moderate. She had no interest in conducting class warfare.
Had she been elected premier, her centrist instincts would have doomed any hope of a far-left revival. That鈥檚 why she went.
Can Horgan withstand the pressure he will face to don a green mantle and toe the new line? I doubt it.
To understand the power structure in the party these days, let鈥檚 examine the entrails.
Just last week, former premier Mike Harcourt tore up his NDP membership card and announced he was leaving the party. He cited a number of reasons, but gave most weight to the party鈥檚 adoption of environmental policies he considered extreme.
But what took him so long? The election was a year ago. I assume he spent the intervening months trying to knock sense into heads in 91原创 and failed.
Then there鈥檚 Dan Miller, who served as interim premier after Glen Clark resigned. Miller was so incensed with the party platform in last year鈥檚 election, he published an opinion piece in the 91原创 Sun expressing his disgust.
Miller is one of the most level-headed politicians you will meet. He鈥檚 also one of the most widely respected, because of his self-deprecating manner and visible decency.
And what does he have to do to make his views heard? Write to a newspaper.
If outstanding holders of public office like James, Harcourt and Miller cannot get through to the inner circle now in charge, what chance does Horgan have?
It would be different, perhaps, if he had pulled off a miracle and rescued the party from imminent disaster. Glen Clark did that in 1996, and from then on, had his own way.
Christy Clark occupies a similar position, after her amazing come-from-behind victory last year.
But Horgan is about to become leader because no one else either wanted the job or had any chance of winning it. That is scarcely a mandate for change.
I wish John the best. Given half a chance, he will make a fine premier one day. But I wouldn鈥檛 throw away those Billy Connolly tapes. They鈥檙e the only thing he鈥檒l have to smile about.
