No one ever lost in politics by being underestimated, and that鈥檚 very much the case with Justin Trudeau. He might not be ready to be prime minister, but neither is he in 鈥渙ver his head,鈥� as the Conservatives have put it in a typically tasteless attack ad.
The Liberal policy convention in Montreal, from today to Sunday, will be an opportunity for Trudeau to demonstrate that the party is united behind his leadership in an environment that stimulates discussion of ideas.
Compared with where they were after the 2011 election, the Liberals have already come a long way. Accustomed to being in government, they were relegated to third-party status for the first time in their history, with only 19 per cent of the vote and 34 seats in the House of Commons. They were out of sight and out of mind. Only the inherent equity of the Liberal brand kept them in the game.
In the 10 months since Trudeau has been their leader, the Liberals have consistently polled in first place. This is not just about the Conservatives being in a deep midterm slump driven by the Senate expense scandal, or the New Democrats being to the left of where the voters are 鈥� in the centre. It鈥檚 also about Trudeau making the most of his opportunities.
To be sure, he has made a few unforced errors.
But he has struck a resonant chord with his slogan of 鈥渉ope and hard work.鈥� It鈥檚 very smart. The 鈥渉ope鈥� part taps into a mood for change going into an election year. The 鈥渉ard work鈥� says he takes nothing for granted.
It鈥檚 an interesting part of his narrative that in 2008, he won a contested Liberal nomination in an east-end Montreal riding then held by a popular Bloc Qu茅b茅cois incumbent. Then, when the tide went out for the Liberals in Quebec in 2011, his was one of only six seats they won.
Those two elections, and last year鈥檚 leadership campaign, were proving grounds for Trudeau as a retail politician. He鈥檚 definitely got game, and it鈥檚 not just about the crowds he鈥檚 drawing, even in such unlikely places as rural Alberta. It鈥檚 equally about how he works a room. He鈥檚 personable, accessible and authentic.
The measuring of any political party鈥檚 prospects begins with its finances, especially with the public subsidy, once $2 per vote, being phased out by the next election. The Liberals, who have long lagged the Conservatives in donor fundraising, nearly matched them by raising $4.3 million compared with the Tories鈥� $5.2 million in the fourth quarter of last year. In December alone, the Liberals raised $2.2 million, about two-thirds of it online.
Filling the coffers will not only wean the Liberals off the public subsidy; it will enable them to be competitive with the Conservatives in getting out their message.
Any party鈥檚 renewal begins with the leader attracting a strong group of candidates. Trudeau is already building a team of articulate newcomers.
In terms of managing the party鈥檚 morale, Trudeau has effectively put an end to the 15-year feud between the Jean Chr茅tien and Paul Martin camps, the Liberal War of the Roses. The fact that Chr茅tien and Martin refuse to be in the same room together is their problem, not Trudeau鈥檚, and their supporters have been told to get over it.
Finally, Trudeau is not afraid to surround himself with good people. In a short period of time, he has built a strong team of advisers.
It was impressive how his inner circle kept the secret of his gambit on kicking Liberal senators out of caucus.
There are problems with that, and some of them might surface this weekend. The party鈥檚 constitution will have to be amended, since it recognizes Liberal senators as members of caucus and automatic delegates to convention.
But for Trudeau, in his opening and closing keynotes, the challenge will be to set a tone as well as an agenda.
When a party gets to a convention floor, it wants to march. Trudeau鈥檚 job is to get them marching.
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L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy magazine.
