A speech from the throne is a majestic moment in the life of our democracy.
The government proposes an agenda, and the Opposition criticizes it. Those are their respective roles. But the occasion is a splendid one.
The contents of the throne speech are hardly a secret. The Conservatives are pitching a suite of consumer issues: wireless and roaming charges for cellphones, unbundling cable TV bills, a bill of rights for airline passengers. Family issues and First Nations are also on the agenda, not to mention skills training and the economy.
With the formalities of the throne speech complete, MPs return down the hall from the Senate chamber to the Commons, where the jousting will begin with the first question period of the new session. The opposition will want to discuss other goings-on in the Senate, while the government will try to stay on its narrative of an agenda for the middle class.
And always, the economy, the Conservatives鈥� signature issue. They never miss a chance to remind voters that the economy has created one million new jobs since the great recession of 2008-09. Unemployment has just moved below seven per cent for the first time since then. Canada has the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7 and the feds are determined to balance the budget by 2015. For the sixth year in a row, the World Economic Forum has ranked Canada鈥檚 banking system the strongest in the world. This is a good story line: the Conservatives as sound stewards of the economy.
But Finance Minister Jim Flaherty often remarks that 鈥渨e are not an island,鈥� not immune to political events such as the current fiscal crisis in Washington, where the government has been shut down for two weeks, while lawmakers tried to avoid defaulting on the country鈥檚 debt. The recovery is 鈥渇ragile,鈥� as the government keeps saying.
There are other events beyond Prime Minister Stephen Harper鈥檚 control where he could use a couple of wins. The Keystone XL pipeline, for one, the Canada-Europe talks for a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, for another.
In an interview at the 91原创 American Business Council in New York last month, Harper said he wouldn鈥檛 鈥渢ake no for an answer鈥� on Keystone, the pipeline from the Alberta oilsands to Texas.
That will be up to Barack Obama, and he has been dismissive about the economic and job benefits of the $6-billion project. While Keystone is supported by trade unions in his Democratic base, it is opposed by environmentalists on the grounds that greenhouse-gas emissions contribute to climate change. It鈥檚 not about the pipeline, it鈥檚 about the oilsands, or tarsands as Obama still calls them, and never mind the emissions from the U.S. coal-fired electricity industry being 40 times higher.
Asked whether he had discussed Keystone with Obama, Harper said he had on a regular basis and that 鈥渢he president has assured me that he鈥檒l make a decision that鈥檚, in what he believes is, the best interests of the United States.鈥�
Harper added: 鈥淭he logic behind the project is simply overwhelming.鈥�
Which is an interesting way of running the relationship between the prime minister and the president. It鈥檚 difficult to imagine Brian Mulroney saying he wouldn鈥檛 take no for an answer from Ronald Reagan on free trade.
Even so, Obama must know that Harper needs a win on this one, and turning down Keystone would be a bad moment in Canada-U.S. relations.
As for the free-trade talks with Europe, an agreement is expected within days, with deal breakers on supply management in agriculture, and differences on intellectual property issues in industries such as pharmaceuticals.
The problem for Canada is that the Americans have begun their own round of trade talks with the Europeans, and the CETA conversation could be relegated to sideshow status.
Asked what worried him most when he was British prime minister, Harold Macmillan supposedly said: 鈥淓vents, dear boy, events.鈥�
Which is where Harper finds himself 鈥� a hostage to political fortune.
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L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy magazine.
