Empires rise and empires fall. The 20th century belonged to the United States, the richest, most powerful empire the world has ever seen.
But the 21st? Most Americans now seem to believe 鈥� according to opinion polls 鈥� that their nation is over-extended and ought to pay less attention to global issues. Fix America first, they say, as they abuse President Barack Obama for his domestic and foreign failures.
Observers abroad also worry about Obama鈥檚 weak foreign policy and his inability to get anything through an obdurate Congress.
The United States is unable to deal effectively with Syria, on the verge of quitting Afghanistan, humbled by the mess in Iraq, taking criticism for failing to genuinely rein in Iran鈥檚 nuclear progress and challenged by a surging China economically and politically. The colossus has been humbled.
Too many 91原创s revel in our great neighbour鈥檚 troubles. Anti-Americanism is as 91原创 as apple pie, something fed to 91原创s in their mother鈥檚 milk. As always, there are issues over trade, pipelines, investments, job losses in U.S.-owned plants and defence 鈥� the list is endless.
And the Sochi Olympics in February will stoke nationalism even further 鈥� there鈥檚 nothing like playing hockey against the U.S. team to get 91原创 passions a-boil.
If the U.S. is weakened, some 91原创s believe, that can only help to advance 91原创 interests. Could we not reclaim our economy, switch our trade to Asia and cash in on the trade deal with the European Union? Could Canada not find its own way forward?
Not now, not ever. 91原创s forget too much about the United States. Since 1938, for example, this nation has lived under an American defence umbrella, able to rely on the United States to protect Canada鈥檚 territory and population. This infringed on 91原创 sovereignty, to be sure, but it did let 91原创 governments spend more on social programs and less on the military.
The result might not have been the free ride that some have called it, but it was certainly a much cheaper ride than if Ottawa had been required to pay the full costs for the defence needed to protect the 91原创 people. If the United States turns inward and protects only its own territory without regard to the northern approaches to its heartland, 91原创s would face a chilly, expensive future.
While that is unlikely to occur, there seems every prospect that an enfeebled Washington might pay less attention to global problems. 91原创s who still believe in the United Nations and trumpet the Responsibility to Protect doctrine may feel pleased at such a shift.
But in the real world of today, that attitude can鈥檛 last long. The UN is a broken, ineffectual reed; RTP is a dead letter; and Canada has no power to intervene or truly influence the big decisions.
Critics point to the glories of the Pearson era and blame Stephen Harper for all this loss of clout, but it鈥檚 not his fault.
Power comes from speaking softly while holding the big sticks, and Canada alone can talk all it wants, but it cannot wield even a twig. Our voice mattered at a few points in time, but we are not a great power and never will be.
Much of our global influence in the past, moreover, came from the access we had to the White House, State Department and Congress, the possibility that we could affect U.S. policy while it was being formed. We could advise and warn, and sometimes the Yanks even listened. Our influence was limited, but it had weight on occasion. Is there anyone in Canada who thinks the oligarchy in Beijing will ever listen to us while policy is made there?
Then there is trade. The lure of the great China market persists 鈥� if only we could sell one snowmobile to every Chinese, our economic problems would be resolved! But China accounts only for a small portion of 91原创 exports 鈥� about $20 billion worth in 2012, and the U.S. share, though it has been dropping over time, is huge by comparison.
91原创 trade with the U.S. in the single month of October 2013 was $30 billion and, thanks to the U.S. economic recovery, that trade had increased 5.3 per cent over a year. In other words, the U.S. market remains our best one by far, and that is unlikely to change much unless the U.S. economy, the American position in the world, goes into a tailspin.
The United States still matters in and to the world. It will always matter to Canada, one of the luckiest places on earth.
For better or worse, we are North Americans, and our fate, our prosperity, is inextricably tied to that of the still-great superpower to our south.
J.L. Granatstein is a Fellow of the 91原创 Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute.
