The much-publicized Arab Spring revolution three short years ago is now going through a further phase, with important implications not just for that violence-plagued region, but also far beyond.
In the latest effect of the initial dramatic changes since December 2010, key areas of the region are realigning. Several countries are forming new alliances with unpredictable and important consequences not just for their own region, but also for other countries far removed from the Middle East, including Canada鈥檚 Conservative government.
In some cases, the changes are a reflection of existing divisions between Sunni and Shiite nations. In other instances, the changes arise primarily over different attitudes toward the Sunni-based Muslim Brotherhood and the dangers it is perceived to represent for the rule of Sunni-led governments in places like Egypt and some Persian Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia and its allies Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
Interestingly, these new alignments are seen by many Middle East countries as a direct result of the failure of the Obama administration鈥檚 perceived lack of leadership in the region. This is exemplified by Washington鈥檚 unwillingness to become more directly and forcefully involved in the efforts to oust Syrian President Bashar Assad, who, thanks to the forces of the Shiite-based Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, has inflicted significant defeats on the various Sunni anti-Assad forces fighting in Syria.
In recent days, Assad鈥檚 military units and Hezbollah fighters even re-took an important strategic rebel stronghold near the border with Lebanon.
Hezbollah has become a key surrogate for the Shiite regime in Iran, the leader of the Shiite bloc made up of Iraq and followers of extremist anti-Israeli movements.
One of the key factors in the Middle East鈥檚 re-alignment is the growing co-operation of the Saudi monarchy with the de facto regime in Egypt headed by Gen. Abdul Fattah al-Sissi, who is widely expected to win election as president later this year. Both the Saudi monarchy and the Egyptian military see the Muslim Brotherhood as their greatest enemy despite their common Sunni faith. For both of them, the Muslim Brotherhood is a direct threat to their own power.
And since the Egyptian military overthrew Egypt鈥檚 first truly democratically elected leader, Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, the organization has remained a power to be reckoned with, carrying out an unending series of attacks and assassinations on military personnel and other perceived opponents.
For their part, the Saudis are determined to block any threat posed by Muslim Brotherhood members or supporters in Saudi Arabia, recently declaring them a terrorist organization. It鈥檚 precisely because of Qatar鈥檚 failure to do the same thing 鈥� even allegedly granting sanctuary to some Muslim Brotherhood leaders 鈥� that resulted in the Saudis and other Gulf states withdrawing their ambassadors from Qatar and threatening punitive measures.
Paradoxically, one of the few possible beneficiaries of the newly created opposing blocs in the Middle East could end up being Israel. This is not to suggest the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn鈥檛 face risks.
While some Arab countries, plus radical Islamic groups, could see benefits in inciting Israel to become more involved in the current instability among Arab states, it鈥檚 not in Israel鈥檚 interests to get sucked into the fighting on a major scale. It is best served by limiting itself primarily to retaliatory strikes in response to obvious provocations.
Interestingly, another possible beneficiary of the current fighting could be Assad who, thanks to Hezbollah and other Shiite fighters, has now had his military position considerably improved.
Sadly, the serious and potentially explosive changes in power alignments and uncertainty over where they may lead in the always volatile Middle East could ultimately have consequences extending well beyond that troubled region, including for the 91原创 government鈥檚 own pro-Israel policies.
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Harry Sterling, a former diplomat, is an Ottawa-based commentator.
