B.C. may not be leading the country in population growth this year – that status has gone to Alberta. But like its peers across the country, the province continues to add newcomers at a furious pace.
B.C.’s population grew by more than 52,300 people during the second quarter to push the estimated population to 5.519 million people as of July 1.
This was 162,730 people or three per cent more than a year ago and marked the strongest year-over-year pace since 1994 during the peak of immigration from Hong Kong.
The latest quarterly gain owed to international inflows. Net immigration, excluding the growth in non-permanent residents, reached 16,000 people during the quarter, down from 21,810 people in Q1. On a four-quarter basis, the count came in at 57,685 people. This was overshadowed by non-permanent residents, which more than doubled the net inflows from the first quarter, resulting in a net increase of 37,307 people and raising four-quarter growth to 117,340 people.
The increase in non-permanent residents represents a 40-per-cent increase over the past year and, consistent with the national picture, reflects the inflow of work permit and study permit holders.
The federal government’s commitment to maintaining annual permanent resident inflows between 450,000 and 500,000 people ensures that immigration will remain high. However, public opinion has shifted given severe housing affordability deterioration, which raises the possibility of future policy measures aimed at restricting non-permanent flows. At least some B.C. residents are already voting with their feet, shuffling over the Rockies in search of higher pay and lower shelter costs. Net interprovincial migration remained negative for a fourth consecutive quarter with a deficit of 300, although it showed signs of moderating compared to recent declines. Over the last four quarters, B.C. lost 8,300 people to other provinces, specifically Alberta, following a 26,000-person increase during the same period in 2022. In the absence of affordable homeownership and rental housing opportunities, this trend is likely to continue.
For the first time since March, B.C. employers recorded a slight decline in payrolls. The latest Survey of Employers, Payroll and Hours shows that payroll enrollment, which is the number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employer, fell by 0.1 per cent in July, following an increase of 0.4 per cent in June. This decline translates to a loss of 2,029 positions in the month, reducing the province’s total job count to 2.56 million positions. In July, results from the more widely covered Labour Force Survey indicated a 0.1-per-cent decline (1,600 people) in seasonally adjusted employment in B.C. The overall trend in B.C. employment growth is mostly positive, however hiring in the province looks to be cooling with a broader economic slowdown.
The seasonally adjusted job vacancy rate continued to fall in July and came in at 4.3 per cent, which represents 109,150 unfilled positions and is down from 4.5 per cent in June. This was the third consecutive month the job vacancy rate declined. With labour demand weakening and reverting to pre-pandemic levels, job vacancies are following suit.
A scan of industries shows employment in goods-producing sectors was unchanged despite an uptick in manufacturing positions, while employment in service-producing sectors dropped by 0.2 per cent, driving the monthly decline.
On the services side, significant changes were observed in educational services, which recorded a drop of 1.5 per cent (2,728 positions) in employment while employment in health care and social assistance lessened by 0.5 per cent (1,650 positions). Notable employment increments were seen in finance and insurance (1.4 per cent or 1,381 positions), and public administration (0.5 per cent or 759 positions).
Month over month, seasonally adjusted average weekly earnings increased by 2.1 per cent, reaching $1,230.44. This growth contributed to a year-over-year growth of 5.9 per cent, maintaining the upward trend. In July, B.C. was the province with the largest average wage growth on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis.
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1.
