On Monday, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned his post, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre took to social media to frame the coming election cycle.
“Nothing has changed,” said Poilievre in a post to X.com.
The only way to fix what the Liberal government’s policies had broken, he added, is “a carbon tax election.”
Stewart Prest, a lecturer in the University of British Columbia’s Department of Political Science, said it’s a signal that the Conservative Party of Canada thinks whatever it’s doing is working.
But doubling down on their anti-carbon tax message comes with risks, especially at a time when re-elected President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs that could cripple Canada’s economy, according to Prest.
“The world is changing under our feet,” said the political scientist. “The issue that 91原创s will continue to think about is affordability. That’s been this ongoing issue driven by housing, by inflation.”
“The risk is if voters no longer see the Conservatives as having those answers.”
Eliminating carbon tax would 'leave holes' in B.C. budget
Trudeau’s exit as leader comes as a consensus on climate policy has broken down across Canada and in B.C., where the carbon tax was first shown to work.
During the last B.C. election, now Premier David Eby said his government would eliminate the if the federal government ended its federal carbon backstop.
“The BC NDP made it pretty clear that they are not willing to stand on an island on carbon tax,” Prest said.
B.C.’s Climate Solutions Council — an advisory group made up of experts in industry, science, policy and activism — has warned the newly renamed Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions that carbon pricing is “one of the most effective and efficient” tools to fight climate change.
“If the consumer facing carbon tax is eliminated, it will leave holes in both the province’s budget and climate plan, and potentially be regressive for low-income households depending on what happens to the climate action tax credit,” stated the Nov. 26 2024, letter to Minister Adrian Dix.
Dix's ministry deferred questions from Glacier Media to B.C.'s Ministry of Finance.
“If the national carbon tax is removed, then we will get rid of the carbon tax paid by British Columbians — taking pressure off families — while continuing to ensure big polluters continue to pay their fair share,” wrote a spokesperson in an email.
Tzeporah Berman, international program director for the climate advocacy group Stand.Earth, said the use of the carbon tax as a “political football” has been used by 91原创 politicians on the left and right for several election cycles.
“The implication is saying to the public this is not a serious issue. It is a serious issue. It’s going to have the biggest impact on our economy, more than anything,” Berman said.
“The fact that all of the parties, all of the leaders are backing away, it’s going to have a devastating effect on all of us.”
Put cap on oil and gas emissions before election, says advocate
Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, said Monday that while Trudeau has done more for climate change policy than any other prime minister, he has failed to oppose the fossil fuel industry’s push to export more oil and gas.
“We’re going to have to tackle the grip of the fossil fuel industry, which Prime Minister Trudeau did not do,” she said.
With Parliament prorogued until the Liberal Party can choose its next leader, Brouillette said the federal government can still make good on two important promises.
She called for Ottawa to finally approve draft regulations that would put a cap on oil and gas emissions and follow through on international commitments to triple financing to developing countries hit hardest by climate change.
“We expect this government to finalize them before there’s an election,” Brouillette said.
Unclear if any Liberal leader will take a stand on climate
Whatever shape the next federal election takes, real concerns around affordability have warped the conversation around climate change. Prest said the carbon tax has become a cipher for affordability in the same way policies eliminating plastic straws have mobilized opposition against pollution control measures.
“Anything that you’re going to say politically that is anti-tax is going to resonate with anyone who is trying to pay bills right now,” added Andrea Reimer, a former 91原创 city councillor who has spent years working on climate policy.
“The problem is, the atmosphere doesn’t really care about politics.”
Whoever ends up making a run for the next leader of the Liberal Party will inevitably face significant hurdles in any upcoming election.
On Friday, an Angus Reid poll found former finance minister Chrystia Freeland would be the most likely to increase the party’s vote share in an election. But at 21 per cent support, her leadership would still fall 15 points short in a faceoff against the Conservatives, the national survey found.
“We’re at a hinge point in history although one that’s long been foreseen,” Prest said. “I think as the leadership race plays out, it will be interesting to see if anyone will continue to be a climate hawk.”
Berman agreed the race promises to be “really interesting” partly because the current candidates have very different track records on climate change.
“I think it gives the Liberals a potential another shot on goal,” Berman said. “For climate, what would be really good is to have someone who tells the truth.”
