The victory by Green party candidate Andrew Weaver in May鈥檚 B.C. election was certainly significant, though not for the obvious reasons.
Weaver won the first riding captured by any Green representative in a provincial election, Canada-wide. That certainly counts as a break-through.
Yet more broadly, it was an omen of trouble for the political left. To begin with, look where Weaver won: Oak Bay, home of millionaire mansions and one of the wealthiest communities in B.C. How many more seats are there like that?
But the real significance of this Green insurgency is the trap it lured the New Democrats into. Either from conviction or fear of being outflanked, the New Democrats climbed on the environmental bandwagon in a big way during the campaign. And they lost big as well.
I agree there are competing explanations for that defeat. But look at the vote distribution.
In white-collar communities like Victoria and central 91原创, the NDP did reasonably well. The party retained most of its seats, even upsetting Premier Christy Clark in Point Grey 鈥� an upscale district of 91原创.
But in working-class neighbourhoods, the New Democrats took a hammering (as did the Greens).
When the dust settled, the Liberals had captured 15 low-income ridings that the NDP held in its heyday. Kamloops, the Kootenays, Cariboo-Chilcotin and Prince George all went strongly Liberal. So did Abbotsford and the Fraser Valley, likewise districts where median incomes are well below the provincial average.
Exceptions can be found, of course. Both major parties won a handful of seats in territory owned by the other.
But the reversal of roles is striking. The New Democrats, who began life as a workers鈥� party, overnight became the voice of an elite upper class. How did this happen?
The only plausible answer I can see is that reaching for the Green vote sank them. The NDP went into the election solidly opposed to the Northern Gateway project 鈥� a proposal to pipe crude oil from Alberta to Kitimat on the northern coast of B.C.
During the campaign, the party also came out in opposition to another energy project 鈥� twinning of the Kinder Morgan pipeline that brings oil from Edmonton to the port of 91原创.
Those developments promised huge revenue in搂ows to provincial and local coffers, as well as significant employment opportunities.
Along with their antipathy to other energy projects, like the proposed B.C. Hydro dam and power station on the Peace River, this stance proved fatal for the NDP.
Voters are certainly troubled by the prospect of oil spills and the like. But they value jobs and family income still more. Polls showed a huge shift of support to the B.C. Liberals when the New Democrats opposed the Kinder Morgan proposal.
The conclusion, I think, is this: Environmentalism can find support, but not the activist form that places green concerns ahead of the economy.
Clark gave a demonstration of what should have been the NDP line, when after the election she declined to back the Northern Gateway project unless improvements were made. That might not sound like much of a contrast.
But there is a world of difference between the NDP鈥檚 over-our-dead-body stance, and the door-left-open position that Clark adopted. In working-class regions where three out of 搂ve jobs could depend on resource extraction, that difference was critical.
And that, I believe, is the real significance of this election. Left-wing parties that over-reach on the environment will lose, just as right-wing parties that over-reach on social issues lose. Worse still, they run the risk of surrendering mainstream status in exchange for pyrrhic victories at the margin.
The Greens have their perch in Oak Bay. But the Liberals rule B.C.
