The future of authentic democracy in Turkey could very well be at risk on Sunday.
After months of growing tension between Prime Minister Recep Tyyip Erdogan, leader of the Muslim-based Justice and Development Party, and his opponents, that country鈥檚 voters go to the polls Sunday in local elections that could determine not just Erdogan鈥檚 own political future, but also the future of democracy in that extremely important NATO nation.
In a turn of events few might have imagined a decade ago, when Erdogan鈥檚 accession to power was cited as evidence that a Muslim-based government could share the commitment to authentic democracy and western concepts of human rights, that early assumption has now been questioned.
Until a few years ago, such optimism seemed well-founded, with the Erdogan government presiding over impressive economic growth and a laudable process that eventually curtailed the intrusive role of the Turkish military within the political system.
Turkey also started to play a significant role in regional affairs, even attempting to help resolve regional issues, including a settlement between Israel and Syria over the Israeli occupation of Syria鈥檚 Golan Heights.
But despite such initial positive accomplishments, in recent years there were signs of growing concern over Erdogan鈥檚 dogmatic approach to government and his unwillingness to respect the views of others or anyone who opposed him.
Growing unhappiness with Erdogan surfaced dramatically last summer when he ignored the concerns of many citizens and set about to raze the most popular park in Istanbul.
When pro-environmentalists staged a peaceful sit-in to save the park, Erdogan sent in riot police, resulting in seven people killed. That action reinforced growing conviction Erdogan simply would not tolerate any opposition to his policies.
Erdogan lashed out at critics, denouncing them as working for his political foes and 鈥渙utside鈥� groups trying to overthrow his government. He took steps to muzzle the press and media, intimidating even the business class, who were threatened with tax probes of their operations if they continued to tolerate criticism of his government.
However, opposition to Erdogan reached the point where opponents within government, including within the justice and police sectors, carried out a clandestine surveillance of individuals with links to Erdogan鈥檚 government allegedly involved in large-scale illicit payoffs in exchange for lucrative contracts and other favours.
Last December, police detained a number of individuals allegedly involved in such large-scale payments, including sons of three prominent cabinet ministers, one a son of the prime minister.
In predictable fashion, Erdogan painted the police action as part of a plot by his enemies to discredit his government, particularly the followers of Fethullah Gulen, the moderate leader of the Islamic-based Hizmet movement who held positions in the justice and security systems. He then ordered a massive re-deployment of the prosecutors and police involved.
Despite this move to undermine the investigation, the media started to receive copies of police wiretaps, many purportedly including statements by Erdogan and others supposedly involved in illegal payments. One indicates Erdogan and his family allegedly received a luxury home for facilitating a lucrative land deal.
Although Erdogan again angrily denounced the tapes as a plot to overthrow his government, one of his party founders told the press he recognized the voice as that of Erdogan.
Erdogan has further introduced legislation prohibiting news sources from publicizing reports that supposedly violate the privacy and rights of other parties. In other words, prohibiting the dissemination of anything the government opposed.
Last week, Erdogan issued a ban on the popular Twitter system, which opponents used to publicize police tapes reportedly implicating Erdogan in illegal payoffs.
Despite such allegations, Erdogan is counting on loyal followers to demonstrate their continued support this Sunday.
The results of that vote could play a critical role, not just for Erdogan鈥檚 political future 鈥� he wants to run for president 鈥� but also for Turkey鈥檚 commitment to authentic democracy and the rule of law.
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Harry Sterling, a former diplomat, is an Ottawa-based commentator. He served in Turkey.
