The National Energy Board panel鈥檚 approval of the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline heralds a new era of prosperity 鈥� for lawyers. On Thursday, the panel delivered its report, giving its OK to the $7.9-billion pipeline, subject to 209 conditions. The federal government has 180 days to approve or reject the project.
鈥淎fter weighing the evidence, we concluded that Canada and 91原创s would be better off with the Enbridge Northern Gateway project than without it,鈥� the three-member panel said in its report.
The chance that Prime Minister Stephen Harper, whose government has said energy exports are crucial for the 91原创 economy, will turn down Northern Gateway is vanishingly small.
However, his determination to see the pipe laid is matched by the determination of First Nations and environmental groups to make sure the line is never built.
Enbridge says 26 of 48 First Nations in Alberta and northern B.C. are in favour of the plan, but those who oppose it say they will fight it in the courts 鈥� and through civil disobedience if that doesn鈥檛 work.
The Supreme Court has ruled that First Nations cannot veto resource projects, but governments must consult them and accommodate them in areas where land claims have not been resolved.
Most First Nations in B.C., including those in the path of the pipeline, have never signed treaties with the Crown. The glacial treaty process will not finish before the project gets under way, so unless Harper has a sudden change of heart, he and Enbridge will have to start lining up their lawyers.
For First Nations, environmental groups and many other British Columbians, the panel鈥檚 conclusion about the benefits outweighing the risks does not compute.
鈥淲e found that a large spill is unlikely,鈥� the panel said.
鈥淲e further found that a large spill would initially have significant adverse environmental effects on ecosystems and we accepted the scientific evidence that indicates that the environment would ultimately recover and return to a functioning ecosystem similar to that existing prior to the spill.鈥�
It points to other spills in marine waters, where the environment recovered, although the definition of recovery is debated.
Its confidence is not shared by environmental groups and First Nations, and that confidence seems to be contradicted by some of the conditions, including the one that requires research on how diluted bitumen behaves in water and how it can be cleaned up.
If that research hasn鈥檛 been done, it will be hard to convince opponents and those who are undecided that the environment would 鈥渦ltimately recover.鈥� A lot of animal lives and human livelihoods could be extinguished before that 鈥渦ltimate鈥� recovery.
Sierra Club B.C. campaigns director Caitlyn Vernon noted that the panel ignored the views of the overwhelming majority of people who testified. But that鈥檚 not surprising. The panel was not taking a public opinion poll. She and others predicted the report will push more people to campaign against the pipeline.
But public opposition is not the only hurdle left. Premier Christy Clark鈥檚 five conditions still stand, and B.C. Environment Minister Mary Polak says only the requirement for environmental approval has been partially met. The others are 鈥渨orld class鈥� spill response on land and water, addressing First Nations rights and a 鈥渇air share鈥� of economic benefits for B.C.
Polak told reporters it is hard to imagine that the federal government could meet B.C.鈥檚 conditions within the 180-day period.
鈥淚 would be absolutely shocked if there would be some capacity to make that determination within a year,鈥� Polak said.
With First Nations, environmental groups, ordinary British Columbians and the B.C. government digging in their heels, lawyers will have no shortage of work.
