In 35 years, Fort St. John could have Quesnel's current climate, and Fort Nelson could have the current climate of Prince George, according to climatology research.
This may not sound so bad, but the changes would also mean that there would be more extreme weather events 鈥� including days with heavy snowfall or rainfall.
The Fraser Basin Council presented the findings to about 12 representatives from industry, transportation, agriculture and government.
David Marshall, the executive director of the council, said that they were asked to focus on northeastern B.C. by Natural Resources Canada.
鈥淲orking within, we鈥檙e trying to get a handle on, really, what the risks are associated with a changing climate to oil and gas operations and other operations in the northeast.鈥�
Ian Picketts, a physical sciences tutor with Quest University, using information from the 91原创 Climate Impacts Consortium, projected the future climate of northeastern B.C.
From around 1900 to 2010, the temperatures measured over a year increased by about 0.22 degrees a decade.
But over the next three decades, projections show it go up by nearly five times that.
Fort St. John and area is expected to shift by a few degrees. The temperature weather over the winter is projected to raise by four degrees Celsius. Over the summer, the temperature could raise by about three degrees Celsius from the current average. The coldest winter temperatures would be about six degrees warmer.
"A lot of the area is not expected to go regularly below minus 40 anymore in the 2050s," Picketts said.
This may sound nice, but the report also noted that this would affect the mountain pine beetle, as very cold winter temperatures are necessary to keep these bug populations under control. High mountain pine beetle populations have negatively affected the lumber industry in the past.
The amount of frost-free days is also expected to increase.
Currently, the area around Fort St. John experiences 106 to 120 days annually without frost. That number is expected to increase by anywhere from 25 to 43 days.
鈥淚ncreases in frost-free days can lengthen growing seasons, affect winter roads and winter access, and alter spring break-up timing and length,鈥� information presented by Picketts noted.
Some at the meeting mentioned the potential positives of a warmer climate. One attendee joked about opening up a winery in the Peace Region.
But this will also mean that when it rains in the 2050s, there could be a lot more rain than was historically present.
For the whole year, it's expected to rise between 11 to 19 per cent. In winter, annual snowfall is expected to rise between four to 24 per cent. In summer, the rain could actually go down one per cent, or rise by 20 per cent.
"There's a need to prepare for a range of future conditions,鈥� Picketts said. 鈥�(The precipitation is) a fairly big uncertainty.鈥�
Allan Chapman, a BC Oil and Gas Commission hydrologist who attended the meeting, said that industry should prepare for this type of weather, since natural gas wells rely on water to get the gas out of the ground.
"When you think about planning, they do need to be thinking about long term water planning," he said. "Where are you going to get your water from a 50 year period of time?"
Chapman compared it to the Romans building aqueducts that remain in effect today. But others were not so convinced. One industry person said that he didn't think that was necessary, given the amount of water re-used by industry.
Industrial attendees said that the new climate that is projected to happen over the next 35 years would mean more problems with the initial projects of exploration (when they are trying to figure out where to place the natural gas well) but not once these sites are found.
"Once you're in there, if economics warrant it, there'll be a road," said one meeting attendee.
Either way, Chapman said that people could expect "a later winter, shorter season, and probably periods in the winter where you'll get a melt."
The projections also showed that in the 2050s, extreme weather events would be more common.
The days with the heaviest rain or snowfall over a 20-year return period are projected to increase between 19 to 54 per cent.
One meeting attendee noted that in recent years, they have seen these types of extreme precipitation events, which can bring down as many as seven inches of rain in four hours.
The days when it gets really hot or really cold are also expected to increase.
鈥淓xtreme short term precipitation events are the ones that are of biggest concern,鈥� he said.
The number of days where it is extremely hot are also expected to increase.
鈥淗otter extreme summer temperatures can affect worker health and safety, increase forest fire risk, and lead to warmer water temperatures and lower water levels (that affect fish, agriculture, and hydroelectric activities),鈥� information presented by Picketts noted.
Another meeting to discuss the issue took place yesterday in Calgary. Marshall noted that a report from the sessions will be presented to Natural Resources Canada in March.
The meeting in Fort St. John did not discuss the causes of climate change, but many agree that it is man-made.
A study of thousands of papers stating a position on climate change found that just over 97 per cent of their writers agreed that humans are the cause of climate change.
