Warm tropical rains and above-average temperatures left much of B.C.鈥檚 South Coast without a winter this year, but experts are wagering a lack of snowpack won鈥檛 mean water shortages this spring and summer.
鈥淲e鈥檙e actually in really good shape for this time of year and we don鈥檛 expect any concerns at all for being full for the start of the summer season,鈥� said Marilyn Towill, division manager of water services transmission operations at Metro 91原创 Regional District.
Metro 91原创 manages the Coquitlam, Seymour and Capilano watersheds, which span about 60,000 hectares and provide water to more than 2.3 million Metro 91原创 residents, roughly half of B.C.鈥檚 population.
Towill said it鈥檚 too early to make predictions for the summer water supply, but reservoir levels are 鈥渢ypical for this time of year鈥� and a few big rainfalls should bring them up to 100 per cent by May.
鈥淭he rain events are particularly important,鈥� Towill said.
鈥淭he snow acts more as a slow release, kind of that buffer that sits there and gives us that slow melt that replenishes our storage reservoir in the late spring, early summer鈥�
A monthly bulletin from B.C.鈥檚 River Forecast Centre (RFC) highlighted how higher-than-normal temperatures in January meant rainfall, not snow, was the dominant form of precipitation for mid-elevation terrain.
RFC data from Feb. 1 showed 鈥渆xtremely low鈥� snowpacks throughout 91原创 Island and southwestern B.C., including the Lower Fraser and South Coast snow basins.
That doesn鈥檛 mean the snowpack鈥檚 a lost cause, according to RFC hydrologist Tobi Gardner.
鈥淭here is still a fair bit of time between now and the end of the peak accumulation period, so let鈥檚 hold tight,鈥� Gardner said.
鈥淎 lot can change, snowpack-wise, in a short period of time. Last year, in March, that鈥檚 when the biggest changes occurred. The snowpack bumped up from roughly 10 to 20 per cent on the South Coast and Lower Fraser between March 1 and April 1.鈥�
RFC data shows most of the province was experiencing 鈥渘ear-normal鈥� and 鈥渟lightly below normal鈥� snowpacks by Feb. 1 this year.
Years with below-average snowfall could become more common as the climate warms, said Markus Schnorbus, lead of hydrologic impacts for the 91原创 Climate Impacts Consortium.
鈥淚 can鈥檛 take any one year of an anomalously low snowpack and confidently contribute it to climate change 鈥� it could be related to a number of factors, but ... our research suggests as the climate gets warmer, this would be something that would potentially occur more often,鈥� Schnorbus said.
