A commentary by a retired 颅family聽doctor.
I have to express my exasperation about the media coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation is very serious. It鈥檚 a disaster fiscally and socially.
In order to overcome this, morale has to be maintained. Not only maintained, but actually boosted.
It is only with a good, informed mental attitude that the public-health measures, which nobody will deny are disagreeable, will continue to be complied with. I suggest we should stand back and look at the broader picture.
The pandemic was not anticipated. It is truly an unprecedented event 鈥� that is to say, there was no previous experience to look back on, no model for how to handle this.
The result is that goals and aims and hopes of nearly every颅body keep receding, which is disheartening and discouraging.
I think all levels of government and public health have done their very best with apparent complete transparency, 颅issuing as much numerical information as possible and regularly addressing us all.
My exasperation peaked when for about the third day on the run, I woke up to hear that Moderna was temporarily stopping its shipments of vaccine to Canada.
Because of a bad political decision somewhere back in the mists of history, Canada is left with a weak pharmaceutical industry and no facility for making a vaccine. This is now being addressed, but the damage cannot be undone overnight from about 20 years ago.
The same news media were confidently telling us about a year ago, at the beginning of the pandemic, that a vaccine might never be possible.
This eventually morphed to firm prognostications that the earliest we could hope for the distribution of a vaccine would be in April 2021. But in spite of Conservative Leader Erin O鈥橳oole鈥檚 dire predictions, several of the very high-risk patients were treated before Christmas 2020, with a drop in the death rate now apparent.
So now we are waiting for the vaccines, with many 鈥渕e first鈥� cries to be heard. The distribution is going to be an enormous, mind-boggling undertaking. On the whole, we are not used to thinking about such large numbers.
The population of Canada is about 38 million, and most will require two injections. The expected rate of injections per injector is 12 an hour.
This means 6,333,000 person hours will be required. Allowing for the fact that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine might soon be available, requiring just one injection, the figure could probably be rounded down to six million person hours.
Assuming an average eight-hour shift, this will result in 750,000 work days, or 107,142 work weeks, or 26,785 work months, or 2,232 work years. As I understand it, it would take more than 2,000 people working without holidays for over a year to complete the task.
Looking at it another way, each person requires two doses of 0.5 mL. So eventually, our country alone will need 38,000 litres to complete the task. That is 38 cubic metres.
Now imagine a swimming pool about six feet (two metres) deep and measuring 10 by 20 feet (three by six metres). That is the volume of vaccine that will ultimately need to be distributed. Can the reader imagine emptying that pool one-tenth of a teaspoonful 鈥� 0.5 mL 鈥� at a time?
I would suggest that the anti-mask and anti-vaccine elements are a relatively small but noisy minority who are a significant risk to the population as a whole. I think they should be denied a platform by media not reporting their reckless behaviour.
I also have reservations about reports of scofflaws vacationing overseas and travelling against advice. It would be human nature to say: 鈥淚f they can get away with it, why shouldn鈥檛 I?鈥�
It is distressing to me to hear of people travelling within and outside Canada while my wife and I have not seen our grandchildren in far too long.
At my last calculation, the incidence of COVID-19 in Canada was about two per cent. In British Columbia, it was 1.3 per cent.
Globally, it is in excess of 13 per cent. Because of the compounding nature of this virus, the comparison is not a straight line, and 13 per cent is considerably greater than 1.3.
I have given a great deal of thought to whether to discuss these figures widely, in that some may say that 1.3 per cent is a very small proportion, so why bother with public health measures?
It is 1.3 simply because British Columbians have been so compliant with the excellent, though quite often unpalatable, advice from public health officials.
I think occasionally we need a pat on the back and a 鈥渨ell done.鈥� These figures suggest that we have done well. Now is not the time to give up.
We have sacrificed a lot over the year, and the vaccine will eventually get around and things will get better. We are over the worst and now we need to start thinking positively and hanging in for the last bit of this dreadful marathon.
Barack Obama was given a plaque for his desk. He says he very much treasures it. It simply says: 鈥淗ard Things Are Hard.鈥�
Yes, they are.